Hurricane Charley on Aug. 13, 2004. The forecast track wasn't that far off. But it was far enough for people in Charlotte and DeSoto counties. File photo.
ORLANDO -- Noted hurricane forecaster Chris Landsea says that in about 10 years, the science of forecasting could hit a plateau.
"We are going to reach the limits of predictability" with regard to the track of hurricanes, he said at the National Hurricane Conference here. That reflects the tremendous increase in the understanding of hurricanes made in the past 62 years.
But the issue of intensity remains. Forecasters have gotten 30 percent better in predicting the tracks of storms -- Erika and Joaquin last year were exceptions -- but storms can intensify or weaken in short order, and that can be a nightmare scenario for forecasters.
A storm that warrants evacuation can weaken quickly, as did Erika last year after Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency. It fell apart over Cuba after forecasters predicted it was likely to hit Florida. The result is that people evacuate, which is at least an inconvenience, and then lose confidence in forecasts when the next storm threatens. So they become more likely to ignore an evacuation order, putting them at risk.
On the other hand, people tend to stay put when threatened by relatively weak hurricanes, according to experts speaking at the NHC. If the storm intensifies from a Category 1 to a Category 2 or 3 overnight, people can wake up to a disaster.
"That is the nightmare scenario for forecasters," said research meteorologist Rob Rogers of the Hurricane Research Division in Miami.
"Opal (in 1995) was a prime example. It was storm right off the coast that was a tropical storm when people went to bed, and when they woke up, it was a Category 4. It is those kinds of quick changes that give nightmares to forecasters."
Opal weakened quickly but still caused $5.1 billion in damage, mostly from storm surge in the Florida panhandle.
Landsea is science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
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